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US$0.0132-0.0141/kWh

Gulf solar is genuinely world-beating, but the famous numbers are procurement prices from project companies 60% owned by the Abu Dhabi government under 25-30 year PPAs with a state offtaker on state land with sovereign-risk debt - they understate the resource cost.

المصدر: PV Tech; ADPV2 · pv-tech.org

Not disclosed

The two most recent 1.5 GW Abu Dhabi solar awards, Khazna in October 2025 and Al Zarraf in 2026, disclosed no tariff. The most recent disclosed UAE solar tariffs are from 2020 (Al Dhafra) and 2023 (Al Ajban), so any current cost claim rests on data at least three years old.

المصدر: Power Technology; list.solar · power-technology.com

~20-25% capacity factor

Cheap solar was never the binding constraint - load factor is: an electrolyser's unit cost scales inversely with utilisation, and Gulf solar delivers only about 20-25% capacity factor.

المصدر: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org

~US$6,100/kW-firm; ~US$60/MWh [derived]

The Masdar/EWEC round-the-clock project - 5.2 GW PV plus 19 GWh of batteries for 1 GW firm at US$6.1bn - implies about US$6,100/kW of firm capacity and roughly US$60/MWh before opex, which is 4-5 times the headline solar tariff and consistent with IRENA's published US$54-82/MWh band for firm solar-plus-storage.

المصدر: PV Tech; ESG News; IRENA via Energy-Storage.news · esgnews.com

Not disclosed

No tariff or offtake has been disclosed for the Masdar round-the-clock project, and press reporting suggests the likely customer is AI data centres rather than electrolysers.

المصدر: PV Tech · pv-tech.org

~$2.9/kg vs ~$6.1/kg [derived]

The region reaches roughly $3/kg only by using Chinese electrolysers at Chinese prices; with Western equipment the same configuration lands near $6/kg, and Chinese machines installed outside China cost US$1,500-2,400/kW once transport and tariffs are paid, so the arbitrage substantially evaporates at the border.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2025; World Bank (derived by gh2.ae) · iea.org

+57% median YoY

Electrolysers got more expensive in the West and cheaper in China: BNEF measured a +57% median year-on-year rise in Western system capex into its 2024 survey, the opposite of the 8-10% fall it had forecast in 2022.

المصدر: BNEF Electrolyser Price Survey, via FuelCellChina · fuelcellchina.com

1,920-2,500 vs 550-1,100 USD/kWe

The IEA's 2025 global-average electrolysis capex band is US$1,920-2,500/kWe against China's US$550-1,100/kWe - the learning curve everyone modelled in 2021 did not happen outside China.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net

>$3,000/kW; 20,000-40,000 h

SOEC, the technology with the best efficiency story, is above $3,000/kW installed and $5,000-5,800/kW at pilot scale, with the shortest stack life of the mainstream options at 20,000-40,000 hours against 60,000-90,000 for alkaline.

المصدر: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org

49 -> 37 -> 27 Mt

The announced 2030 pipeline has fallen across three consecutive IEA editions - 49 Mt, then 37 Mt, now 27 Mt - and committed-plus-strong-potential capacity fell from 10 Mt to just above 6 Mt in a single edition.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org

<0.8 Mtpa; ~15% FID share

New FIDs taken in 2025 were below 0.8 Mtpa after two consecutive years at about 1.0 Mtpa, and only around 15% of the announced pipeline has reached FID at all (4.3 of 27 Mt).

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org

22 Mt; >100 GW

22 Mt of announced production must reach FID by early 2027 or miss 2030 entirely, and more than 100 GW of announced electrolysis could lose any chance of operating by 2030 without decisions by end-2027.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Production; Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org

1 of 31

In Africa, exactly 1 of 31 announced 2030 hydrogen projects has taken a final investment decision.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org

2 of 66

Only two countries - the Netherlands and China - are on track to meet their 2030 hydrogen targets, out of 66 national hydrogen strategies.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Policy · iea.org

>4 GW; ~1 Mt of >100 Mt

The actual built stock is just over 4 GW of electrolysers worldwide, with China responsible for about 75% of 2025 additions, producing roughly 1 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen against more than 100 Mt of global hydrogen demand - still under 1%.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org

~US$7bn (2025)

Real global capital spending on low-emissions hydrogen was about US$7 billion in 2025 - less than the cost of the Masdar round-the-clock solar project alone - rising to an estimated US$10 billion in 2026.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org

4% (down from 13%)

Hydrogen's share of energy venture capital fell to 4% in 2025 from a 13% peak in 2023.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org

26 GW / AU$55bn

BP walked away from the 26 GW Australian Renewable Energy Hub in July 2025, exiting a 40.5% stake and the operatorship of an AU$55bn (US$36bn) project, saying the decision reflected its recent strategy reset.

المصدر: PV Tech · pv-tech.org

EUR 2.5bn returned

ArcelorMittal shelved its Bremen and Eisenhuettenstadt green-hydrogen steel conversions and handed back EUR 2.5 billion of German subsidy.

المصدر: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com

-63%; -66%; 15 Mtpa abandoned

Repsol cut electrolyser plans by about 63% to 0.7-1.2 GW, Iberdrola cut its green hydrogen target from 350,000 to 120,000 t/yr, and Fortescue abandoned its 15 Mtpa 2030 target outright.

المصدر: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com

A$12.5bn

Queensland cancelled the A$12.5 billion CQ-H2 liquefied hydrogen plant, and Origin, Trafigura, Woodside, Shell, Equinor, Neste, Kawasaki, HyStor and Air Products all exited or cancelled hydrogen projects between 2024 and 2026.

المصدر: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com

25 GW by 2030 -> 8-15 GW by 2035

Chile cut its national hydrogen target from 25 GW by 2030 to 8-15 GW by 2035.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net

~50 projects / ~3%

The Hydrogen Council counts about 50 cancellations in 18 months, roughly 3% of the pipeline. That count covers formal cancellation only; it does not capture downsizing or schedule drift, which the IEA's 10 Mt pipeline reduction reflects.

المصدر: Hydrogen Council / McKinsey · hydrogencouncil.com

below USD 2/kg

The IEA's 2026 cost-acceptability finding: absent policy support, the maximum acceptable hydrogen cost is below USD 2/kg for most combinations of sector and region, against best-in-class production at about $3/kg today.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org

negative

For steel - the sector everyone points to - the IEA finds the hydrogen cost must be negative, meaning it requires incentives, to reach parity.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org

1.7 Mtpa; ~20% firm

New offtake agreements signed in 2025 totalled 1.7 Mtpa, flat year-on-year, of which only about 20% are firm.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Demand · iea.org

~USD 2/kg; >10 kWh/kg

Shipping pure hydrogen implies minimum costs of about USD 2/kg H2 and energy use above 10 kWh/kg - over 30% of the hydrogen's energy content - so a $3/kg production cost becomes a $5/kg delivered molecule against a below-$2/kg willingness to pay.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org

13-34% / 25-35%

Ammonia is the only route with an existing fleet and about 170 terminals worldwide, but it only works if the buyer wants ammonia: cracking back to hydrogen costs another 13-34% at 500-550 C, and LOHC dehydrogenation costs 25-35%. There is no free path.

المصدر: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II; IEA GHR-2026 · irena.org

<8% (~1 Mtpa)

More than 40% of announced 2030 volumes depend on international trade, but less than 8% - around 1 Mtpa - is operational, under construction or committed.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org

EUR 811/t; EUR 1,000/t delivered

The only arms-length, competitively determined green ammonia price published to date is Fertiglobe's H2Global pilot auction win in July 2024, at EUR 811/t ex-works and EUR 1,000/t delivered into Europe — a 1.8–2.2x premium over a grey benchmark of roughly US$400–500/t.

المصدر: H2Global; Fertiglobe · h2-global.org

no clearing price

H2Global's resale auction has still produced no clearing price, so the demand-side value of that molecule remains unmeasured and the entire gap is public money.

المصدر: H2Global · h2-global.org

$825/t peak; $665/t Jul 2026

The 2026 price comparison flatters green ammonia: US/Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 blocked the Strait of Hormuz and removed roughly a third of global seaborne nitrogen supply, driving Tampa CFR ammonia to $825/t in April and leaving it at $665/t in July. That is a war premium on grey, not structural convergence.

المصدر: Chemical Market Analytics · chemicalmarketanalytics.com

~70% via Hormuz

The Middle East supplies more than a quarter of seaborne ammonia trade, about 40% of urea and about 45% of methanol, and roughly 70% of the region's ammonia and methanol exports transit the Strait of Hormuz. Hydrogen derivatives exported by the same route would face the same transit exposure as the molecules they replace.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net

below USD 2/kg by 2030

China is the only market where the IEA projects renewable hydrogen below USD 2/kg by 2030. Installed electrolysis doubled to over 4 GW globally in 2025 with China taking about 75% of additions, at capex of US$550–1,100/kW.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Production; Assumptions Annex · iea.org

US$54-82/MWh

Firm renewables are the other genuine success: IRENA's firm solar-plus-storage LCOE fell from above US$100/MWh in 2020 to US$54-82/MWh in 2025, with BESS costs down from US$2,634/kWh in 2010 to US$197/kWh in 2024 and a further roughly 30% fall in 2025.

المصدر: IRENA, 24/7 Renewables, via Energy-Storage.news · energy-storage.news

1 Mtpa, FID May 2024

The UAE's only hydrogen-derivative project that has actually taken FID is blue, not green: TA'ZIZ's 1 Mtpa low-carbon ammonia plant at Ruwais, FID May 2024, start-up 2027, with Fertiglobe, GS Energy and Mitsui.

المصدر: Mitsui; Fertiglobe · mitsui.com

~10% = 430 ktpa

The Middle East accounts for about 10% of committed global low-emissions hydrogen production - 430 ktpa - and the largest renewable project under construction anywhere is Saudi Arabia's NEOM at 2.2 GW, not an Emirati one.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net

1.4 Mtpa by 2031

The UAE's national target is 1.4 Mtpa of low-carbon hydrogen by 2031, composed of 1.0 green and 0.4 blue. Capacity that has reached a final investment decision today is one plant, TA'ZIZ, at 1 Mtpa of low-carbon ammonia. The strategy publishes no cost target in $/kg.

المصدر: UAE Government; Fraunhofer ISE · ise.fraunhofer.de

below USD 2/kg

In 2026 the sector's economics are set by the demand ceiling, not the supply floor - and that ceiling has not moved.

المصدر: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org