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Economics
The Emirates holds genuine world records in solar procurement. Those records are bid tariffs under sovereign-backed thirty-year contracts, not levelised costs, and they sit upstream of an electrolyser whose capital cost has risen, not fallen, outside China.
Last verified:
Solar
These are procurement prices from competitive tenders, not levelised costs. Both figures for Noor Abu Dhabi are shown because sources disagree.
Al Ajban was bid at 5.1921 fils/kWh, converted here at the pegged rate of AED 3.6725 to the dollar.
US ¢/kWh
| Project | US ¢/kWh |
|---|---|
| Noor Abu Dhabi 2016 | 2.42 |
| Al Dhafra 2020 | 1.35 |
| Al Ajban 2023 | 1.41 |
Sources
Source: Green Building Africa / ADPower · greenbuildingafrica.co.za · Retrieved 26 August 2026
Source: PV Tech · pv-tech.org · Retrieved 26 August 2026
Source: MEED · meed.com · Retrieved 26 August 2026
Electrolysers
The common assumption is that costs are falling everywhere. They are not: Western capex rose while Chinese capex fell, and that gap is the real decision facing any Gulf project.
Published ranges, drawn as ranges. The gap is roughly fourfold and it has not closed: Western capex rose while Chinese capex fell. A Gulf project buys into whichever of these two markets its financing and content rules allow.
A projection, not an observation.
A projection, not an observation.
USD per kW of electrolyser · 0 – 2,600
| Market and year | USD/kW |
|---|---|
| Outside China, 2024 | 2,000–2,600 |
| Global average, 2025 | 1,920–2,500 |
| Global average, 2030 (projected) | 1,440–1,870 |
| China, 2024 | 600–1,200 |
| China, 2025 | 550–1,100 |
| China, 2030 (projected) | 450–910 |
Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review / BloombergNEF · iea.org · Retrieved 26 August 2026
Constants
Several figures in wide circulation are unit errors rather than disagreements. Hydrogen's gravimetric energy density does not change with pressure or phase, and liquid hydrogen boil-off is roughly an order of magnitude below the commonly quoted range.
| Metric | Value | Unit | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrogen energy density (LHV) | 33.33 | kWh/kg | IDEALHY states 33.33 kWh/kg of useable energy, equivalently 120 MJ/kg. This site prints the rounded form, 33.3 kWh/kg. | idealhy.eu |
| Hydrogen energy density (HHV) | 39.4 | kWh/kg | Equivalently 141.8 MJ/kg. The higher heating value includes the latent heat of the water produced and the lower heating value does not, which is why the two differ by about 18%. | h2tools.org |
| Hydrogen boiling point | -252.9 | °C | About 20 K. Roughly 220 C colder than ammonia's boiling point - the physical reason hydrogen liquefaction needs cryogenics near absolute zero plus ortho-para conversion, while ammonia uses conventional refrigeration. | h2tools.org |
| Hydrogen gas density at NTP | 0.08375 | kg/m³ | h2tools.org | |
| Hydrogen gas volumetric energy density at 1 bar | ~0.003 | kWh/L | A gh2.ae derivation. The very low volumetric density at ambient pressure is the origin of the 12.8 unit confusion: 12.8 is close to the volumetric HHV of hydrogen gas at standard conditions, about 12.75 MJ/m³. | h2tools.org |
| Hydrogen gas volumetric energy density at 700 bar | ~1.3 | kWh/L | A gh2.ae derivation. | h2tools.org |
| Liquid hydrogen volumetric energy density | ~2.4 | kWh/L | A gh2.ae derivation. | idealhy.eu |
| Ammonia boiling point / liquefaction conditions | -33 | °C at 1 bar | Alternatively liquid at +20 C and 7.5 bar. Correct for ammonia only - attributing -33 C to hydrogen is wrong by about 220 C and invalidates every downstream cost estimate. | irena.org |
| Ammonia energy density (gravimetric) | 5.2 | kWh/kg | IEA-AMF states ammonia's lower heating value as 18.6 MJ/kg, which is 5.17 kWh/kg; 5.2 is that figure rounded. | iea-amf.org |
| Ammonia energy density (volumetric, liquid) | ~3.5 | kWh/L | IEA-AMF states 12.69 MJ/L for liquid ammonia cooled to -33 C at 1 atm (density 682 kg/m3), which is 3.53 kWh/L. Liquid ammonia therefore carries more energy per litre than liquid hydrogen at about 2.4 kWh/L, despite carrying less per kilogram. | iea-amf.org |
| Liquid hydrogen boil-off rate, shipping and storage | 0.05-0.25 | % per day | Replaces the false '1-3% daily' claim, which is a small-dewar and vehicle-tank figure and overstates ship and terminal losses by 10-30 times. | irena.org |
| LH2 boil-off - NASA 3,200 m³ spherical tank | 0.0625 | % per day | 1960s design, cited 2024. Measured evidence for the low end of the IRENA range. | link.springer.com |
| LH2 boil-off - Linde 1,100-2,300 m³ spherical tanks | <0.1 | % per day | link.springer.com | |
| LH2 boil-off - Linde 300 m³ cylindrical tank | 0.3 | % per day | The small-tank end of the range - still an order of magnitude below the 1-3%/day claim. | link.springer.com |
| LH2 boil-off - Kawasaki Heavy Industries 11,200 m³ sphere | ≤0.1 | % per day | The largest modern tank cited, and among the lowest rates. | link.springer.com |
| LNG carrier boil-off (reference point) | 0.10-0.15 | % per day | Included as the familiar comparison: large LH2 tanks are in the same order of magnitude as LNG carriers. | wartsila.com |
| Hydrogen liquefaction energy penalty - state of the art | 12 | kWh/kg | IDEALHY states this is equivalent to 36% of the 33.33 kWh/kg of useable energy in 1 kg of hydrogen. | idealhy.eu |
| Hydrogen liquefaction energy penalty - IDEALHY design achieved | 6.4 | kWh/kg | Approximately 19% of LHV - the best-in-class design target. | idealhy.eu |
| Hydrogen liquefaction energy penalty - published range | 30-36 | % of the hydrogen's energy | IRENA: 'high energy losses for liquefaction (30-36% today)'. No source supports a 40% top end. | irena.org |
| Shipping pure hydrogen - full round-trip energy penalty | >10 | kWh/kg H2 | Equivalent to over 30% of hydrogen's energy content, at a minimum cost of about USD 2/kg H2. This covers liquefaction plus reconversion - quoting 30-40% for liquefaction alone while separately quoting cracking losses risks double-counting. | iea.org |
This table scrolls horizontally to reveal further columns.
Carriers
Why nobody ships hydrogen as a gas at atmospheric pressure: a litre of it holds about a thousandth of what a litre of liquid ammonia holds. The 1-bar bar is not missing — at this scale it is 0.09% of the tallest.
kWh per litre
| Carrier | kWh/L |
|---|---|
| Hydrogen gas, 1 bar | 0.003 |
| Hydrogen gas, 700 bar | 1.3 |
| Liquid hydrogen, −253 °C | 2.4 |
| Liquid ammonia, −33 °C | 3.5 |
Source: IDEALHY / IRENA / H2Tools · idealhy.eu · Retrieved 26 August 2026
The 1–3% per day figure appears across sector material, including the previous version of this site. Measured tanks and IRENA's own review put it an order of magnitude lower — close to the LNG trade's long-established rate.
No primary source found for this range.
% of cargo lost per day · 0 – 3
| Source | % / day |
|---|---|
| Claimed in sector material | 1–3 |
| IRENA, shipping and storage | 0.05–0.25 |
| LNG carriers, for reference | 0.10–0.15 |
| Measured: NASA 3,200 m³ sphere | 0.0625 |
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal, Part II · irena.org · 1 May 2022 · Retrieved 26 August 2026
LCOH
just above USD 3/kgUSD/kg
Vintage: 2030 projection (report published 18 Jun 2026)
The authoritative regional projection. Three times the ~$1/kg figure circulating in Gulf-facing material.
Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
below USD 2/kgUSD/kg
Vintage: 2030
The only place the IEA projects renewable hydrogen approaching parity with fossil hydrogen.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
~3.5USD/kg
Vintage: 2030
Source: IEA GHR-2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
potentially just above USD 1/kgUSD/kg
Vintage: 2030
This is the only route the IEA identifies as potentially approaching $1/kg - and it is blue, not green.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
~3USD/kg
Vintage: Feb 2026
Source: World Bank, Technical and Economic Characteristics of electrolysers · documents1.worldbank.org
below USD 2/kgUSD/kg
Vintage: 2026
For most combinations of sectors and regions. This demand ceiling, not the supply floor, sets the sector's economics.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
negative (i.e. requires incentives)USD/kg
Vintage: 2026
The sector everyone points to cannot reach parity at any positive hydrogen price.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
~45% by 2035; ~2/3 of it in China%
Vintage: 2026
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
40-45% lower%
Vintage: 2025
Source: IEA GHR-2025 via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
CAPEX
1,920-2,500USD/kWe
Vintage: 2025
Source: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net
1,440-1,870USD/kWe
Vintage: 2030
Source: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net
550-1,100USD/kWe
Vintage: 2025
Source: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net
450-910USD/kWe
Vintage: 2030
Source: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net
2,000-2,600USD/kW
Vintage: 2024
Source: IEA GHR-2025, Executive summary · iea.org
600-1,200USD/kW
Vintage: 2024
Source: IEA GHR-2025, Executive summary · iea.org
1,500-2,400USD/kW
Vintage: 2024
The China cost arbitrage largely evaporates at the border.
Source: IEA GHR-2025, Executive summary · iea.org
500-1,500USD/kW
Vintage: Feb 2026
China $800-1,200/kW; European units in emerging markets and developing countries $1,200-1,800/kW.
Source: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org
1,000-2,000USD/kW
Vintage: Feb 2026
Source: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org
NH₃
811EUR/t NH3, ex-factory
Vintage: Jul 2024
The only arms-length, competitively determined green ammonia price published to date.
Source: H2Global, Pilot Auction Results · h2-global.org
1,000EUR/t
Vintage: Jul 2024
81% product, 9% transport, 7% logistics, 3% duties.
Source: H2Global; Fertiglobe · fertiglobe.com
19,500 t (2027); 40,000 t/yr minimum 2028-33; up to 397,500 t; up to EUR 397m-
Vintage: Jul 2024
Source: H2Global; Fertiglobe · fertiglobe.com
Egypt Green Hydrogen, Ain Sokhna, Suez Canal Economic Zone (up to 13,000 t/yr renewable H2)-
Vintage: 2024
Source: H2Global; Fertiglobe · fertiglobe.com
≈ EUR 4.6/kg H2 ex-worksEUR/kg H2derived
Vintage: Jul 2024
A gh2.ae derivation: arithmetic, and it ignores cracking losses.
Source: Derived by gh2.ae from the H2Global clearing price (NH3 is 17.65% H2 by mass) · h2-global.org
expected 2025/26 - still no clearing price published-
Vintage: Jun 2025 brief
Until a resale price exists, the demand-side value of the molecule is unmeasured and the entire gap is public money.
Source: H2Global · h2-global.org
665USD/t
Vintage: Jul 2026
Inflated by the 2026 Hormuz disruption - a war premium on grey, not structural convergence.
Source: Chemical Market Analytics (published 7 Aug 2026) · chemicalmarketanalytics.com
825USD/t
Vintage: mid-Apr 2026
Source: Chemical Market Analytics · chemicalmarketanalytics.com
935 (mid-Apr 2026 tender) -> 445 (early Jun 2026 tender)USD/t
Vintage: 2026
Source: Chemical Market Analytics · chemicalmarketanalytics.com
Transport
>10 kWh/kg H2, over 30% of hydrogen's energy content; minimum cost ~USD 2/kg H2-
Vintage: 2026
Add this to ~$3/kg production and the delivered molecule is ~$5/kg against a below-$2/kg willingness to pay.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org
12-26% of H2 energy
Vintage: 2022
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · irena.org
13-34%
Vintage: 2022
Table 1.1. The report text gives losses of at least 15% and up to 33% in the reconversion step (p.25). Only matters if the buyer wants hydrogen rather than ammonia.
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · irena.org
500-550°C
Vintage: 2022
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · irena.org
25-35% of the energy in the hydrogen
Vintage: 2022
Table 1.1.
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · irena.org
~0.1% per cycle
Vintage: 2022
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · irena.org
USD 8/kg H2 -> USD 0.8/kg H2 by 2050USD/kg H2
Vintage: 2022 projection
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part I · irena.org
~USD 1/kg H2 added by 2050 across methodsUSD/kg
Vintage: 2022
Source: IRENA, Global Hydrogen Trade Costs Part III · irena.org
~170 / 130count
Vintage: 2026
The existing ammonia fleet and terminal network is the real argument for ammonia as a carrier.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org
Market
>100Mt
Vintage: 2025
Up approximately 3% year-on-year, almost all of it unabated.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Demand · iea.org
~1Mt
Vintage: 2025
Up 20% year-on-year from a very small base.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org
<1% (2025); expected to pass 1% in 2026 for the first time%
Vintage: 2025/26
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org
~7 (2025); ~10 (2026 estimate)USD bn
Vintage: 2025/26
Approximately 70% of the 2026 figure is electrolysis. The 2025 figure is less than the cost of the Masdar RTC solar project alone.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
41USD bn
Vintage: 2026
Roughly two thirds legislated; about 25% disbursed.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
4% (2025), down from a 13% peak (2023)%
Vintage: 2025
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
~3.3 committed; ~0.65 at project levelUSD bn cumulative to Q1 2026
Vintage: 2026
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
110USD bn
Vintage: Sep 2025
Across 500+ mature projects, up US$35bn year-on-year. This is the entire global industry.
Source: Hydrogen Council / McKinsey, Global Hydrogen Compass · hydrogencouncil.com
China $33bn (19 GW, 55% of global FID capacity); North America $23bn; Europe $19bnUSD bn
Vintage: Sep 2025
Source: S&P Global on Hydrogen Council · spglobal.com
Reality
Sourced findings on the state of the sector in 2026. Each card is gh2.ae's reading of the source cited beneath it, not a quotation from that source.
US$0.0132-0.0141/kWh
Gulf solar is genuinely world-beating, but the famous numbers are procurement prices from project companies 60% owned by the Abu Dhabi government under 25-30 year PPAs with a state offtaker on state land with sovereign-risk debt - they understate the resource cost.
Source: PV Tech; ADPV2 · pv-tech.org
Not disclosed
The two most recent 1.5 GW Abu Dhabi solar awards, Khazna in October 2025 and Al Zarraf in 2026, disclosed no tariff. The most recent disclosed UAE solar tariffs are from 2020 (Al Dhafra) and 2023 (Al Ajban), so any current cost claim rests on data at least three years old.
Source: Power Technology; list.solar · power-technology.com
~20-25% capacity factor
Cheap solar was never the binding constraint - load factor is: an electrolyser's unit cost scales inversely with utilisation, and Gulf solar delivers only about 20-25% capacity factor.
Source: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org
~US$6,100/kW-firm; ~US$60/MWh [derived]
The Masdar/EWEC round-the-clock project - 5.2 GW PV plus 19 GWh of batteries for 1 GW firm at US$6.1bn - implies about US$6,100/kW of firm capacity and roughly US$60/MWh before opex, which is 4-5 times the headline solar tariff and consistent with IRENA's published US$54-82/MWh band for firm solar-plus-storage.
Source: PV Tech; ESG News; IRENA via Energy-Storage.news · esgnews.com
Not disclosed
No tariff or offtake has been disclosed for the Masdar round-the-clock project, and press reporting suggests the likely customer is AI data centres rather than electrolysers.
Source: PV Tech · pv-tech.org
~$2.9/kg vs ~$6.1/kg [derived]
The region reaches roughly $3/kg only by using Chinese electrolysers at Chinese prices; with Western equipment the same configuration lands near $6/kg, and Chinese machines installed outside China cost US$1,500-2,400/kW once transport and tariffs are paid, so the arbitrage substantially evaporates at the border.
Source: IEA GHR-2025; World Bank (derived by gh2.ae) · iea.org
+57% median YoY
Electrolysers got more expensive in the West and cheaper in China: BNEF measured a +57% median year-on-year rise in Western system capex into its 2024 survey, the opposite of the 8-10% fall it had forecast in 2022.
Source: BNEF Electrolyser Price Survey, via FuelCellChina · fuelcellchina.com
1,920-2,500 vs 550-1,100 USD/kWe
The IEA's 2025 global-average electrolysis capex band is US$1,920-2,500/kWe against China's US$550-1,100/kWe - the learning curve everyone modelled in 2021 did not happen outside China.
Source: IEA GHR-2026 Assumptions Annex · iea.blob.core.windows.net
>$3,000/kW; 20,000-40,000 h
SOEC, the technology with the best efficiency story, is above $3,000/kW installed and $5,000-5,800/kW at pilot scale, with the shortest stack life of the mainstream options at 20,000-40,000 hours against 60,000-90,000 for alkaline.
Source: World Bank · documents1.worldbank.org
49 -> 37 -> 27 Mt
The announced 2030 pipeline has fallen across three consecutive IEA editions - 49 Mt, then 37 Mt, now 27 Mt - and committed-plus-strong-potential capacity fell from 10 Mt to just above 6 Mt in a single edition.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org
<0.8 Mtpa; ~15% FID share
New FIDs taken in 2025 were below 0.8 Mtpa after two consecutive years at about 1.0 Mtpa, and only around 15% of the announced pipeline has reached FID at all (4.3 of 27 Mt).
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org
22 Mt; >100 GW
22 Mt of announced production must reach FID by early 2027 or miss 2030 entirely, and more than 100 GW of announced electrolysis could lose any chance of operating by 2030 without decisions by end-2027.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production; Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
1 of 31
In Africa, exactly 1 of 31 announced 2030 hydrogen projects has taken a final investment decision.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
2 of 66
Only two countries - the Netherlands and China - are on track to meet their 2030 hydrogen targets, out of 66 national hydrogen strategies.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Policy · iea.org
>4 GW; ~1 Mt of >100 Mt
The actual built stock is just over 4 GW of electrolysers worldwide, with China responsible for about 75% of 2025 additions, producing roughly 1 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen against more than 100 Mt of global hydrogen demand - still under 1%.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production · iea.org
~US$7bn (2025)
Real global capital spending on low-emissions hydrogen was about US$7 billion in 2025 - less than the cost of the Masdar round-the-clock solar project alone - rising to an estimated US$10 billion in 2026.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
4% (down from 13%)
Hydrogen's share of energy venture capital fell to 4% in 2025 from a 13% peak in 2023.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Investment and Innovation · iea.org
26 GW / AU$55bn
BP walked away from the 26 GW Australian Renewable Energy Hub in July 2025, exiting a 40.5% stake and the operatorship of an AU$55bn (US$36bn) project, saying the decision reflected its recent strategy reset.
Source: PV Tech · pv-tech.org
EUR 2.5bn returned
ArcelorMittal shelved its Bremen and Eisenhuettenstadt green-hydrogen steel conversions and handed back EUR 2.5 billion of German subsidy.
Source: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com
-63%; -66%; 15 Mtpa abandoned
Repsol cut electrolyser plans by about 63% to 0.7-1.2 GW, Iberdrola cut its green hydrogen target from 350,000 to 120,000 t/yr, and Fortescue abandoned its 15 Mtpa 2030 target outright.
Source: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com
A$12.5bn
Queensland cancelled the A$12.5 billion CQ-H2 liquefied hydrogen plant, and Origin, Trafigura, Woodside, Shell, Equinor, Neste, Kawasaki, HyStor and Air Products all exited or cancelled hydrogen projects between 2024 and 2026.
Source: Hydrocarbon Processing · hydrocarbonprocessing.com
25 GW by 2030 -> 8-15 GW by 2035
Chile cut its national hydrogen target from 25 GW by 2030 to 8-15 GW by 2035.
Source: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net
~50 projects / ~3%
The Hydrogen Council counts about 50 cancellations in 18 months, roughly 3% of the pipeline. That count covers formal cancellation only; it does not capture downsizing or schedule drift, which the IEA's 10 Mt pipeline reduction reflects.
Source: Hydrogen Council / McKinsey · hydrogencouncil.com
below USD 2/kg
The IEA's 2026 cost-acceptability finding: absent policy support, the maximum acceptable hydrogen cost is below USD 2/kg for most combinations of sector and region, against best-in-class production at about $3/kg today.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
negative
For steel - the sector everyone points to - the IEA finds the hydrogen cost must be negative, meaning it requires incentives, to reach parity.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
1.7 Mtpa; ~20% firm
New offtake agreements signed in 2025 totalled 1.7 Mtpa, flat year-on-year, of which only about 20% are firm.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Demand · iea.org
~USD 2/kg; >10 kWh/kg
Shipping pure hydrogen implies minimum costs of about USD 2/kg H2 and energy use above 10 kWh/kg - over 30% of the hydrogen's energy content - so a $3/kg production cost becomes a $5/kg delivered molecule against a below-$2/kg willingness to pay.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org
13-34% / 25-35%
Ammonia is the only route with an existing fleet and about 170 terminals worldwide, but it only works if the buyer wants ammonia: cracking back to hydrogen costs another 13-34% at 500-550 C, and LOHC dehydrogenation costs 25-35%. There is no free path.
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II; IEA GHR-2026 · irena.org
<8% (~1 Mtpa)
More than 40% of announced 2030 volumes depend on international trade, but less than 8% - around 1 Mtpa - is operational, under construction or committed.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Trade and Infrastructure · iea.org
EUR 811/t; EUR 1,000/t delivered
The only arms-length, competitively determined green ammonia price published to date is Fertiglobe's H2Global pilot auction win in July 2024, at EUR 811/t ex-works and EUR 1,000/t delivered into Europe — a 1.8–2.2x premium over a grey benchmark of roughly US$400–500/t.
Source: H2Global; Fertiglobe · h2-global.org
no clearing price
H2Global's resale auction has still produced no clearing price, so the demand-side value of that molecule remains unmeasured and the entire gap is public money.
Source: H2Global · h2-global.org
$825/t peak; $665/t Jul 2026
The 2026 price comparison flatters green ammonia: US/Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026 blocked the Strait of Hormuz and removed roughly a third of global seaborne nitrogen supply, driving Tampa CFR ammonia to $825/t in April and leaving it at $665/t in July. That is a war premium on grey, not structural convergence.
Source: Chemical Market Analytics · chemicalmarketanalytics.com
~70% via Hormuz
The Middle East supplies more than a quarter of seaborne ammonia trade, about 40% of urea and about 45% of methanol, and roughly 70% of the region's ammonia and methanol exports transit the Strait of Hormuz. Hydrogen derivatives exported by the same route would face the same transit exposure as the molecules they replace.
Source: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net
below USD 2/kg by 2030
China is the only market where the IEA projects renewable hydrogen below USD 2/kg by 2030. Installed electrolysis doubled to over 4 GW globally in 2025 with China taking about 75% of additions, at capex of US$550–1,100/kW.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Production; Assumptions Annex · iea.org
US$54-82/MWh
Firm renewables are the other genuine success: IRENA's firm solar-plus-storage LCOE fell from above US$100/MWh in 2020 to US$54-82/MWh in 2025, with BESS costs down from US$2,634/kWh in 2010 to US$197/kWh in 2024 and a further roughly 30% fall in 2025.
Source: IRENA, 24/7 Renewables, via Energy-Storage.news · energy-storage.news
1 Mtpa, FID May 2024
The UAE's only hydrogen-derivative project that has actually taken FID is blue, not green: TA'ZIZ's 1 Mtpa low-carbon ammonia plant at Ruwais, FID May 2024, start-up 2027, with Fertiglobe, GS Energy and Mitsui.
Source: Mitsui; Fertiglobe · mitsui.com
~10% = 430 ktpa
The Middle East accounts for about 10% of committed global low-emissions hydrogen production - 430 ktpa - and the largest renewable project under construction anywhere is Saudi Arabia's NEOM at 2.2 GW, not an Emirati one.
Source: IEA GHR-2026 (full report) · iea.blob.core.windows.net
1.4 Mtpa by 2031
The UAE's national target is 1.4 Mtpa of low-carbon hydrogen by 2031, composed of 1.0 green and 0.4 blue. Capacity that has reached a final investment decision today is one plant, TA'ZIZ, at 1 Mtpa of low-carbon ammonia. The strategy publishes no cost target in $/kg.
Source: UAE Government; Fraunhofer ISE · ise.fraunhofer.de
below USD 2/kg
In 2026 the sector's economics are set by the demand ceiling, not the supply floor - and that ceiling has not moved.
Source: IEA GHR-2026, Cost acceptability · iea.org
Figures in circulation, checked
Each of these appears in sector material about the Emirates. Each is checked, and where it fails, corrected.
Claim in circulation: “Solar LCOE approx USD 0.013-0.014/kWh in the UAE”
What the source actually says: The numbers are real but they are awarded bid tariffs, not LCOE, and they are stale: Al Dhafra was bid at US$0.0135/kWh in April 2020 (US$0.0132/kWh at financial close) and Al Ajban at 5.1921 fils/kWh = US$0.01413/kWh in June 2023. A Gulf IPP tariff is a contracted price under a 25-30 year PPA with a state offtaker, from a project company 60% government-owned, on state land, with sovereign-risk debt - a transfer price, not a resource cost. IRENA publishes no Middle East or UAE solar LCOE at all, and the two most recent 1.5 GW Abu Dhabi awards (Khazna 2025, Al Zarraf 2026) disclosed no tariff.
Source: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025; PV Tech; MEED · irena.org
Claim in circulation: “KSA/Oman solar LCOE USD 0.017/kWh”
What the source actually says: Oman has no published solar tariff or LCOE at all - Ibri II, Manah 1 and 2, Amin and Ibri III all lack disclosed prices, and the AIIB disclosure for Ibri II explicitly omits commercial terms. Saudi results bracket 0.017 without equalling it: Al Shuaibah 2 at US$0.0104/kWh (2021), then US$0.0129, US$0.0131, US$0.0140 and US$0.0178 in the October 2024 round. Grouping the two countries under one LCOE combines a decade of published auctions with a country that has published none.
Source: pv magazine; AGBI · pv-magazine.com
Claim in circulation: “Australia solar LCOE USD 0.024/kWh”
What the source actually says: IRENA publishes no Australia-specific solar LCOE. CSIRO's GenCost 2025-26 puts large-scale solar capital cost at about AUD 1,100/kW in real 2025-26 dollars, which at a typical Australian utility capacity factor and a commercial WACC implies roughly AUD 45-60/MWh, about USD 29-39/MWh - comfortably above US$0.024/kWh. GenCost also warns that its LCOE excludes renewable integration costs.
Source: CSIRO, GenCost 2025-26 (final, 15 Jul 2026) · csiro.au
Claim in circulation: “Strategic cost target of approximately $1/kg hydrogen”
What the source actually says: $1/kg is a real target, but it is the US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Shot, announced 7 July 2021 for 2031 - American policy, not a Gulf projection. The UAE has published no $/kg cost target (Fraunhofer ISE, Nov 2023). The IEA puts Middle East renewable hydrogen at just above USD 3/kg by 2030, and the World Bank puts the best projects operating today at around $3/kg. The only route the IEA identifies as potentially approaching just above USD 1/kg is natural gas with CCUS in gas-rich regions - blue, not green.
Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2026, via Green Hydrogen Organisation · gh2.org
Claim in circulation: “Energy density 12.8 kWh/kg for gaseous hydrogen”
What the source actually says: Hydrogen's gravimetric energy density is 33.3 kWh/kg (LHV, 120 MJ/kg) and 39.4 kWh/kg (HHV, 141.8 MJ/kg). Gravimetric energy density does not change with pressure or phase, so the qualifier 'gaseous' reveals a conceptual error as well as a wrong value. The most likely origin is the volumetric HHV of hydrogen gas at standard conditions, about 12.75 MJ/m3, relabelled as kWh/kg; a secondary possibility is confusion with gasoline at about 12.9 kWh/kg HHV.
Source: IDEALHY (EU FP7) · idealhy.eu
Claim in circulation: “Liquefaction at -33 degrees C vs -253 degrees C”
What the source actually says: Correct as a comparison of ammonia with hydrogen: IRENA gives ammonia liquefying at -33 C at 1 bar (or +20 C at 7.5 bar) and H2Tools gives hydrogen's boiling point as -252.9 C. The roughly 220 C gap is exactly the physical argument for ammonia as a carrier. It becomes FALSE if the surrounding text attributes -33 C to hydrogen - the quoted sentence has no subjects, so check the context; if hydrogen is implied at -33 C it is wrong by about 220 C and invalidates every downstream cost estimate.
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II; H2Tools / PNNL · irena.org
Claim in circulation: “Boil-off 1-3% daily”
What the source actually says: IRENA gives liquid hydrogen boil-off of 0.05-0.25% per day during shipping and storage, and measured tanks confirm the low end: NASA's 3,200 m3 sphere at 0.0625%/day, Linde spheres of 1,100-2,300 m3 below 0.1%/day, and KHI's 11,200 m3 sphere at or below 0.1%/day. LNG carriers run 0.10-0.15%/day for reference. 1-3%/day is characteristic of very small dewars and vehicle tanks with an unfavourable surface-area-to-volume ratio; applied to ships or terminal storage it overstates losses by 10-30 times.
Source: IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II (Table 1.1, p.22) · irena.org
Claim in circulation: “Liquefaction consumes 30-40% of the hydrogen's energy”
What the source actually says: The lower half is well sourced; the 40% top end is above every published figure. IDEALHY puts state-of-the-art plants at 12 kWh/kg, equivalent to 36% of the 33.33 kWh/kg of useable energy, with its own design achieving 6.4 kWh/kg (about 19%). IRENA gives 30-36% today. The defensible statement is 30-36% for today's plants, with best-in-class new designs targeting roughly 19-24%. No source supports 40%. Note also that the IEA's above-30% figure covers the full round trip (liquefaction plus reconversion), so quoting 30-40% for liquefaction alone while separately quoting ammonia cracking losses risks double-counting.
Source: IDEALHY; IRENA, Global hydrogen trade Part II · idealhy.eu
Claim in circulation: “Predictive maintenance gives 15-25% reduction in operating costs”
What the source actually says: The percentage is close to a real figure but applied to the wrong cost base. McKinsey (Oct 2018) reports 18-25% reductions in maintenance costs - not operating costs - from full digital reliability transformations in heavy industry, not predictive maintenance alone; Deloitte (2017) claims only 5-10% off overall maintenance costs and attributes it to internal analyses. For electrolytic hydrogen the World Bank is explicit that electricity is the most significant OPEX and a key driver of project economics, with fixed O&M typically a small single-digit share of LCOH - so a 25% cut in maintenance moves LCOH by low single-digit percent. There is also no operating fleet of gigawatt-scale electrolysers to have generated any hydrogen-specific evidence.
Source: McKinsey; World Bank · mckinsey.com
Claim in circulation: “More than USD 200 billion in announced sovereign investment programmes”
What the source actually says: Almost certainly a currency unit error. The UAE Energy Strategy 2050 commits AED 150-200 billion by 2030, approximately USD 41-54 billion at the pegged rate of AED 3.6725/USD; reading 'AED 200 billion' as 'USD 200 billion' reproduces the claim exactly and overstates it by about 3.7 times. Scale checks confirm the implausibility: the Hydrogen Council counts USD 110 billion of committed investment across the entire global hydrogen industry (Sep 2025), and the IEA puts actual global capital spending on low-emissions hydrogen at about USD 7 billion in 2025 and USD 10 billion in 2026.
Source: UAE Government, UAE Energy Strategy 2050 · u.ae
Claim in circulation: “E-ammonia marine bunker fuel with potential of 700 million liters/year for domestic UAE aviation by 2030”
What the source actually says: The 700 million litres per year by 2030 figure is genuine but it is the UAE's sustainable aviation fuel production target, approved December 2023. Three compounded errors follow. Wrong molecule: ammonia is not an aviation fuel and has no certified pathway for turbine aircraft. Wrong pathway: the named UAE projects are bio-based, not e-fuels - MENA Biofuels with ENOC in Fujairah at 125 Ml/yr from used cooking oil, and Masdar/Tadweer at about 500,000 t/yr from municipal solid waste; no UAE power-to-liquid project was identified. Wrong demand definition: 700 Ml/yr is a production goal, largely export-oriented, while the domestic obligation is a separate requirement of at least 1% of fuel supplied at UAE airports to UAE airlines, locally produced, by 2031. Litres is also the wrong unit for ammonia bunkering, which is transacted in tonnes.
Source: GreenAir News; Sustainable Aviation Futures · greenairnews.com
179 entries
Every sourced economic figure behind this page, with its vintage, publisher and link.
| Metric | Value | Unit | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noor Abu Dhabi (Sweihan) 1,177 MW - final tariff | 2.42 | US ¢/kWh | Bid Sep 2016; COD Apr 2019 | greenbuildingafrica.co.za |
| Noor Abu Dhabi - alternative reported tariff | 2.94 | US ¢/kWh | 2016 bid | power-technology.com |
| Noor Abu Dhabi - capex | 871 | USD m | 2019 | greenbuildingafrica.co.za |
| Noor Abu Dhabi - ownership and PPA structure | ADWEA 60% / Marubeni 20% / JinkoSolar 20% | ownership share | 2017 | power-technology.com |
| Al Dhafra 2 GW - winning bid | 1.35 | US ¢/kWh | Announced 28 Apr 2020 | pv-tech.org |
| Al Dhafra - tariff improved at financial close | 1.32 | US ¢/kWh | 2020/21 | adpv2.ae |
| Al Dhafra - ownership and PPA structure | TAQA+Masdar 60% / EDF 20% / JinkoPower 20% | ownership share | 2020 | adpv2.ae |
| Al Dhafra - capacity and output | 2.1 GWp DC / 1.5 GWp AC; ~4,700 GWh/yr | GWp / GWh per year | 2020 | adpv2.ae |
| Al Ajban 1.5 GW - winning bid (EDF/KOWEPO/Masdar) | 5.1921 | fils/kWh | Bid Jun 2023; awarded Apr 2024 | meed.com |
| Al Ajban - second-lowest bid (Marubeni) | 5.3577 | fils/kWh | Jun 2023 | meed.com |
| Khazna 1.5 GW (ENGIE/Masdar) - tariff | Not disclosed | - | Awarded 13 Oct 2025 | power-technology.com |
| Al Zarraf 1.5 GW (EDF/KOWEPO) - tariff | Not disclosed | - | 2026 | list.solar |
| MBR Solar Park Phase 2 (200 MW) | 5.6 | US ¢/kWh | Bid ~2014-16 | mbrsic.ae |
| MBR Solar Park Phase 3 (800 MW, Masdar) | 2.99 | US ¢/kWh | Bid 2016 | mbrsic.ae |
| MBR Solar Park Phase 4 (950 MW CSP+PV) | Not published | - | 2017 | dewa.gov.ae |
| MBR Solar Park Phase 5 (900 MW, ACWA/GIC) | 1.6953 | US ¢/kWh | Bid announced 16 Oct 2019 | pv-tech.org |
| MBR Solar Park Phase 6 (1,800 MW, Masdar) | 1.62154 | US ¢/kWh | Lowest bid received Jun 2023 | dewa.gov.ae |
| Saudi Al Shuaibah 2 (600 MW) | 1.04 | US ¢/kWh | Apr 2021 - world record at the time | pv-magazine.com |
| Saudi Al-Sadawi (2,000 MW, Masdar/KEPCO) | 1.29 | US ¢/kWh | Oct 2024 | pv-magazine.com |
| Saudi Al-Masaa (1,000 MW) | 1.31 | US ¢/kWh | Oct 2024 | pv-magazine.com |
| Saudi Al-Henakiyah 2 (400 MW) | 1.40 | US ¢/kWh | Oct 2024 | pv-magazine.com |
| Saudi Rabigh 2 (300 MW) | 1.78 | US ¢/kWh | Oct 2024 | pv-magazine.com |
| Saudi Dawadmi wind (1,500 MW) | 1.33803 | US ¢/kWh | Round 6, Oct 2025 | renewable-energy-industry.com |
| Oman solar IPP tariffs (Ibri II, Manah 1/2, Amin) | None published | - | 2019-2026 | agbi.com |
| Global weighted-average solar PV LCOE | 44 | USD/MWh | 2025 (published 2 Jul 2026) | irena.org |
| Global weighted-average solar PV LCOE, prior year | 43 | USD/MWh | 2024 | pv-magazine.com |
| Global solar PV total installed cost | 667 | USD/kW | 2025 | irena.org |
| Global solar PV capacity factor | 16 | % | 2025 | irena.org |
| Solar PV LCOE - China / India / Brazil | 36 / 35 / 37 | USD/MWh | 2025 | irena.org |
| Solar PV LCOE - US / Germany | 62 / 65 | USD/MWh | 2025 | irena.org |
| Solar PV LCOE - Middle East, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Australia | Not published | - | 2024 and 2025 editions | irena.org |
| IEA modelling assumption - solar LCOE, China / India | 23 (2025) -> 18 (2030) | USD/MWh | 2025/2030 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| IEA assumption - solar LCOE, Europe / North America | 37 -> 30 | USD/MWh | 2025/2030 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Firm ('24/7') solar-plus-storage LCOE, best regions | 54-82 | USD/MWh | 2025 (published May 2026) | energy-storage.news |
| Firm solar-plus-storage LCOE, prior benchmark | >100 | USD/MWh | 2020 | energy-storage.news |
| Unfirmed utility solar / onshore wind vs new CCGT | ~40 vs >100 | USD/MWh | 2025 | energy-storage.news |
| BESS system cost | 2,634 (2010) -> 197 (2024); further ~30% fall in 2025 | USD/kWh | 2024/25 | energy-storage.news |
| Australia large-scale solar capital cost | ~1,100 | AUD/kW (real 2025-26) | 2025 | csiro.au |
| Masdar/EWEC round-the-clock project - solar PV capacity | 5.2 | GW (DC) | Announced 14 Jan 2025 | masdar.ae |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - battery energy storage | 19 | GWh | 2025 | pv-tech.org |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - claimed firm output | 1 | GW '24 hours a day' / '24/7/365' | 2025 | cleantechnica.com |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - total investment | 6.1 | USD bn | 2025/2026 | esgnews.com |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - financing structure | US$5.1bn debt from 13 banks + US$1.0bn Masdar equity | - | Financial close Jul 2026 | pv-tech.org |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - groundbreaking / commissioning | Oct 2025 / 2027 | - | 2025-27 | ess-news.com |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - tariff or PPA price | Not disclosed; no formal offtake announced | - | Jul 2026 | pv-tech.org |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - ratio of firm output to PV nameplate | 19.2 | % | 2025/26 | masdar.ae |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - capital cost per kW of firm capacity | ~6,100 | USD/kW-firm | 2026 | esgnews.com |
| Masdar/EWEC RTC - implied LCOE at 7% WACC, 25 years, capex only | ~60 | USD/MWh | 2026 | esgnews.com |
| Renewable hydrogen LCOH, Middle East / India / Chile | just above USD 3/kg | USD/kg | 2030 projection (report published 18 Jun 2026) | gh2.org |
| Renewable hydrogen LCOH, northern China | below USD 2/kg | USD/kg | 2030 | gh2.org |
| Renewable hydrogen LCOH, best European locations | ~3.5 | USD/kg | 2030 | gh2.org |
| Hydrogen from natural gas with CCUS, gas-rich regions | potentially just above USD 1/kg | USD/kg | 2030 | gh2.org |
| Best projects operating today | ~3 | USD/kg | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Maximum acceptable hydrogen cost absent policy support | below USD 2/kg | USD/kg | 2026 | iea.org |
| Steel: hydrogen cost needed for parity | negative (i.e. requires incentives) | USD/kg | 2026 | iea.org |
| Share of NZE hydrogen demand reachable below USD 250/tCO2 | ~45% by 2035; ~2/3 of it in China | % | 2026 | iea.org |
| China green hydrogen cost advantage vs EU/US | 40-45% lower | % | 2025 | gh2.org |
| Latin America cost gap vs fossil hydrogen by 2030 | could narrow to just above USD 0.5/kg | USD/kg | 2030 | gh2.org |
| Electricity share of LCOH | electricity is the most significant OPEX and a key driver of project economics | - | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Typical good-location electricity supply cost used | 3-5 | US ¢/kWh | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| WACC range across emerging markets | 9.4-18.4 | % | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| BloombergNEF public LCOH figure | Not publicly reported at a citable level | - | 2026 | fuelcellchina.com |
| LCOH scenario: Gulf solar direct ($13.5/MWh, 22% load factor) with Western electrolyser ($2,000/kW) | ~6.1 | USD/kg | 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| LCOH scenario: Gulf solar direct ($13.5/MWh, 22% load factor) with Chinese electrolyser ($800/kW) | ~2.9 | USD/kg | 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| LCOH scenario: RTC firm power ($60/MWh, 50% load factor) with Chinese electrolyser ($800/kW) | ~4.3 | USD/kg | 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Water electrolysis capex, global average | 1,920-2,500 | USD/kWe | 2025 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Water electrolysis capex, global average, projected | 1,440-1,870 | USD/kWe | 2030 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Water electrolysis capex, China | 550-1,100 | USD/kWe | 2025 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Water electrolysis capex, China, projected | 450-910 | USD/kWe | 2030 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Non-China manufacture plus installation | 2,000-2,600 | USD/kW | 2024 | iea.org |
| China manufacture plus installation | 600-1,200 | USD/kW | 2024 | iea.org |
| Chinese electrolysers installed outside China (incl. transport and tariffs) | 1,500-2,400 | USD/kW | 2024 | iea.org |
| Alkaline electrolyser, installed | 500-1,500 | USD/kW | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| PEM electrolyser, installed | 1,000-2,000 | USD/kW | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| SOEC electrolyser, installed | >3,000 | USD/kW | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| AEM electrolyser, installed | >3,500 | USD/kW | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| BNEF: Western system capex change | +57% median year-on-year | % | 2023 to 2024 survey | fuelcellchina.com |
| BNEF: Western vs Chinese systems | ~2,500 vs ~600 (approx. 4x) | USD/kW | 2024 | fuelcellchina.com |
| BNEF first electrolyser price survey (baseline) | EU/US alkaline + PEM 1,200-1,800; Chinese alkaline approx. one quarter of that | USD/kW | 2022 | x.com |
| Chinese 1 MW alkaline tender price | ~800 | USD/kW | 2022 | hydrogenfuelnews.com |
| Chinese electrolyser price fall | ~50 | % | 2022 to 2025 | hydrogenfuelnews.com |
| Chinese electrolyser manufacturing capacity | >39 GW/yr (~60% of global) | GW/yr | 2025 | hydrogenfuelnews.com |
| China electrolyser manufacturing capacity (IEA figure) | 20 GW/yr = 60% of global | GW/yr | 2024 | iea.org |
| Electrolysis efficiency, global | 63% LHV (2025) -> 64% (2030); China 59% -> 62% | % LHV | 2025/2030 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Electricity consumption, alkaline / PEM | 51-56 / 53-56 | kWh/kg H2 (AC) | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Stack lifetime - ALK / PEM / SOEC / AEM | 60-90k / 40-60k / 20-40k / 10-20k | hours | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Degradation - ALK / PEM / SOEC / AEM | 0.1-0.25 / 0.2-0.5 / 0.5-1.0 / >1.0 | % per 1,000 h | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| SOEC electricity saving with waste heat | 20-30 | % | Feb 2026 | documents1.worldbank.org |
| Announced 2030 low-emissions hydrogen pipeline | 27 | Mt | 2026 | iea.org |
| Announced 2030 pipeline, prior editions | 37 Mt (GHR-2025, down from 49 Mt in GHR-2024) | Mt | 2025 | iea.org |
| Committed (post-FID) production by 2030 | 4.3 | Mt | 2026 | iea.org |
| Committed plus strong-potential capacity, change | fell from 10 Mt to just above 6 Mt | Mt | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| FID share of announced pipeline | ~15 | % | 2026 | iea.org |
| New FIDs taken in 2025 | <0.8 | Mtpa | 2025 | iea.org |
| Additional production reaching FID since GHR-2025 | 300 | ktpa | 2026 | iea.org |
| At-risk announced production | 22 | Mt | 2026 | gh2.org |
| At-risk electrolyser capacity | >100 | GW | 2026 | iea.org |
| Africa FID rate | 1 of 31 announced 2030 projects has reached FID | - | 2026 | gh2.org |
| Countries on track for their 2030 targets | only 2: the Netherlands and China | count | 2026 | iea.org |
| National hydrogen strategies | 66 | count | 2026 | iea.org |
| Hydrogen Council: cancellations | ~50 projects in 18 months, approximately 3% of pipeline | - | Sep 2025 | hydrogencouncil.com |
| Hydrogen Council: FID capacity | 6 Mtpa, of which 1 Mtpa already operational | Mtpa | Sep 2025 | spglobal.com |
| Hydrogen Council: announced projects | 1,700+ since 2020 (7.5x increase) | count | Sep 2025 | spglobal.com |
| Global installed electrolysis capacity | >4 | GW | end-2025 | iea.org |
| Electrolysis under construction, targeting 2026 operation | >2.5 | GW | 2026 | iea.org |
| Expected 2026 electrolysis additions | ~2, mostly Europe | GW | 2026 estimate | iea.org |
| China share of 2025 electrolysis additions | ~75 | % | 2025 | iea.org |
| Installed electrolysis capacity, prior year | 2 GW (end-2024) plus >1 GW added to Jul 2025 | GW | 2024/25 | iea.org |
| Conflicting installed-capacity figure (FLAGGED - do not cite) | 4.9 GW vs 0.6 GW in 2021 | GW | 2025 | gh2.org |
| Operational vs at-risk announced ratio | ~4 GW built vs >100 GW announced at risk of missing 2030 alone | GW | 2026 | iea.org |
| China electrolyser deployment | ~2 | GW | 2024 | iea.org |
| BP exits Australian Renewable Energy Hub | 40.5% stake and operatorship of 26 GW wind+solar / 1.6 Mtpa green H2 | - | 25 Jul 2025 | pv-tech.org |
| ArcelorMittal shelves Bremen and Eisenhuettenstadt green-H2 steel conversions | EUR 2.5bn German subsidy returned | - | Jun 2025 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Repsol cuts electrolyser plans | ~63% cut, to 0.7-1.2 GW | - | Feb 2025 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Iberdrola cuts green hydrogen target | from 350,000 t/yr to 120,000 t/yr | t/yr | Mar 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Fortescue abandons 2030 green hydrogen target | 15 Mtpa target abandoned | Mtpa | Jul 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Woodside drops two green hydrogen projects | 2 projects | count | Sep 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Origin Energy cancels Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub | cancelled | - | Oct 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Trafigura cancels Port Pirie green hydrogen plant | A$750m | AUD | Mar 2025 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Queensland Government cancels CQ-H2 liquefied hydrogen plant | A$12.5bn | AUD bn | 2025 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Air Products cancels green liquid hydrogen facility | 35 t/day | t/day | Feb 2025 onwards | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Shell Aukra (Norway) and Equinor Norway-Germany hydrogen pipeline dropped | both dropped | - | Sep 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Neste cancels renewable hydrogen investment | cancelled | - | Oct 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| HyStor Energy cancels electrolyser reservation | >1 GW | GW | Sep 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| Kawasaki Heavy Industries drops Latrobe coal-to-hydrogen | dropped | - | Dec 2024 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| LEAG (Germany) postpones green energy hub | postponed indefinitely | - | Jun 2025 | hydrocarbonprocessing.com |
| BP Duqm (Oman) 1.5 GW and H2Teesside 1.2 GW (blue) reported cancelled | 1.5 GW / 1.2 GW | GW | 2025 / Dec 2025 | bankable.show |
| Lhyfe cancels French project | >100 MW | MW | Apr 2026 | bankable.show |
| Chile cuts national hydrogen target | from 25 GW by 2030 to 8-15 GW by 2035 | GW | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Shipping pure hydrogen (liquefy plus reconvert) - energy and cost | >10 kWh/kg H2, over 30% of hydrogen's energy content; minimum cost ~USD 2/kg H2 | - | 2026 | iea.org |
| Ammonia synthesis energy penalty | 12-26 | % of H2 energy | 2022 | irena.org |
| Ammonia cracking / reconversion penalty | 13-34 | % | 2022 | irena.org |
| Ammonia cracking temperature | 500-550 | °C | 2022 | irena.org |
| LOHC dehydrogenation penalty | 25-35 | % of the energy in the hydrogen | 2022 | irena.org |
| LOHC carrier degradation | ~0.1 | % per cycle | 2022 | irena.org |
| Ammonia shipping cost trajectory (20,000 km) | USD 8/kg H2 -> USD 0.8/kg H2 by 2050 | USD/kg H2 | 2022 projection | irena.org |
| Hydrogen transport cost convergence estimate | ~USD 1/kg H2 added by 2050 across methods | USD/kg | 2022 | irena.org |
| Ammonia / methanol port terminals in operation | ~170 / 130 | count | 2026 | iea.org |
| Trade-oriented share of announced 2030 volumes | >40% announced; <8% (~1 Mtpa) operational, under construction or committed | % | 2026 | iea.org |
| H2Global pilot auction - winning net product price (Fertiglobe, ADNOC-controlled) | 811 | EUR/t NH3, ex-factory | Jul 2024 | h2-global.org |
| H2Global pilot auction - delivered into Europe | 1,000 | EUR/t | Jul 2024 | fertiglobe.com |
| H2Global contract volumes and value | 19,500 t (2027); 40,000 t/yr minimum 2028-33; up to 397,500 t; up to EUR 397m | - | Jul 2024 | fertiglobe.com |
| H2Global - implied hydrogen-content price | ≈ EUR 4.6/kg H2 ex-works | EUR/kg H2 | Jul 2024 | h2-global.org |
| H2Global first resale auction | expected 2025/26 - still no clearing price published | - | Jun 2025 brief | h2-global.org |
| Grey ammonia, Tampa CFR - July 2026 contract | 665 | USD/t | Jul 2026 | chemicalmarketanalytics.com |
| Grey ammonia, Tampa CFR - 2026 peak | 825 | USD/t | mid-Apr 2026 | chemicalmarketanalytics.com |
| Urea, India CFR | 935 (mid-Apr 2026 tender) -> 445 (early Jun 2026 tender) | USD/t | 2026 | chemicalmarketanalytics.com |
| Middle East ammonia price (pre-crisis reference) | ~440 | USD/t | Feb 2024 | businessanalytiq.com |
| Low-emissions ammonia routes vs conventional | typically 10-100% more expensive per tonne, depending on energy prices | % | 2021 | iea.org |
| Middle East share of global ammonia production / trade | 11% of 190 Mt production (2024); >25% of the 16 Mt seaborne ammonia trade | % | 2024/2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Middle East share - urea / methanol trade | ~40% of 54 Mt urea; ~45% of 39 Mt methanol | % | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Hormuz transit exposure of Middle East exports | ~60% of ME urea exports; ~70% of ME ammonia and methanol exports | % | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| UAE SAF production target | 700 million litres per year by 2030 | Ml/yr | approved Dec 2023 | greenairnews.com |
| UAE SAF blending obligation | ≥1% of fuel supplied at UAE airports to UAE airlines, locally produced, by 2031 | % | Dec 2023 | greenairnews.com |
| UAE power-to-liquid / e-fuel projects | None identified | - | 2026 | sustainableaviationfutures.com |
| Global hydrogen demand | >100 | Mt | 2025 | iea.org |
| Low-emissions hydrogen production | ~1 | Mt | 2025 | iea.org |
| Low-emissions share of total hydrogen | <1% (2025); expected to pass 1% in 2026 for the first time | % | 2025/26 | iea.org |
| Actual capex on low-emissions hydrogen | ~7 (2025); ~10 (2026 estimate) | USD bn | 2025/26 | iea.org |
| New public funding identified since GHR-2025 | 41 | USD bn | 2026 | iea.org |
| Hydrogen share of energy venture capital | 4% (2025), down from a 13% peak (2023) | % | 2025 | iea.org |
| International public finance to emerging economies | ~3.3 committed; ~0.65 at project level | USD bn cumulative to Q1 2026 | 2026 | iea.org |
| Hydrogen Council: committed investment | 110 | USD bn | Sep 2025 | hydrogencouncil.com |
| Hydrogen Council: regional committed capital | China $33bn (19 GW, 55% of global FID capacity); North America $23bn; Europe $19bn | USD bn | Sep 2025 | spglobal.com |
| Binding offtake secured | 3.6 | Mtpa | Sep 2025 | hydrogencouncil.com |
| New offtake agreements signed | 1.7 | Mtpa | 2025 | iea.org |
| Volumes contracted via procurement tenders | >1 Mtpa tendered; >0.3 Mtpa contracted | Mtpa | Q1 2026 | iea.org |
| UAE National Hydrogen Strategy targets | 1.4 Mtpa by 2031 (1.0 green + 0.4 blue); 7.5 Mtpa 2040; 15 Mtpa 2050 | Mtpa | Jul 2023 | u.ae |
| UAE strategy implied infrastructure | 15.3 GW solar PV + 8.7 GW electrolysers | GW | 2023 | gh2.org |
| UAE published $/kg hydrogen cost target | None | - | Nov 2023 analysis | ise.fraunhofer.de |
| UAE Energy Strategy 2050 investment | AED 150-200 billion by 2030 (≈ USD 41-54 billion) | AED bn / USD bn | updated strategy; page updated Dec 2024 | u.ae |
| UAE clean energy capacity target | 14.2 -> 19.8 GW by 2030; 30% of energy mix | GW / % | 2023 | u.ae |
| TA'ZIZ low-carbon ammonia, Ruwais | 1 Mtpa; FID May 2024; start-up 2027 | Mtpa | 2024 | mitsui.com |
| TA'ZIZ complex | 4.7 Mtpa of chemicals from 2028 | Mtpa | 2026 | adnoc.ae |
| Middle East share of committed global low-emissions hydrogen | ~10% = 430 ktpa | ktpa | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| NEOM Green Hydrogen (Saudi Arabia) | 2.2 | GW electrolysers | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub (Saudi Arabia) | 4 | GW planned | 2026 | iea.blob.core.windows.net |
| Masdar/EMSTEEL green steel pilot (Abu Dhabi) | Fully operational; capacity and cost not disclosed | - | 2024/25 | gh2.org |
| DOE Hydrogen Shot (US, for reference) | reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per kilogram in 1 decade | USD/kg | announced 7 Jul 2021, target 2031 | iea.org |
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